With the Hollywood
Foreign Press and the Screen Actor Guild already pulling back the curtain on
this year’s group of nominees, it will soon be time for the Academy of Arts
& Sciences to do the same. This six part series will look at each of the
main categories and break down the frontrunners and dark horses of this Oscar
season.
The Frontrunners:
“The King’s Speech,” “The Social Network,” & “The
Fighter” – With the Academy switching last year to a system with 10 nominated
films, a number of movies have in turn gone from contenders to frontrunners to
locks; the above trio qualify in that category. If one of these movies doesn’t
make the final list, you’ll hear a collective gasp from the nation’s critics.
The Contenders:
“127 Hours” – Both
director Danny Boyle and lead actor James Franco have great shots at being
nominated in their individual categories as does the movie itself. Although
some of the film’s detractors have said the film itself may just be a little
too intense for certain voters to stomach.
“Black Swan” – Director Darren Aronofsky undoubtedly has
a hit on his hands with this dark ballerina thriller and it would be surprising
not to see his talented cast acknowledged.
With that said Aronofsky has yet to receive a nomination for himself and
has yet to see a film he’s directed get the nod either. Even last year’s
well-received “The Wrestler” was snubbed and that was also with the expanded
field in play. Will this be the year he breaks though?
“Inception” – “Inception’s” Oscar chances are as
complicated to describe as the film’s plot. The movie itself was one of the
year’s most creative and visually stunning box office entries, but also one of
the most confusing. While a lot of viewers were able to navigate the
storyline’s different layers, a lot of audience members were lost halfway into
first act. It is that level of intricacy that can work both for and against it
a movie hoping for a nomination.
“True Grit” – The Coen Brothers know how to make movies
that the public and the Academy love, even if most of them are beyond dark.
Regardless, an expanded category works in this film’s favor.
“Toy Story 3” – Oscar fact: only twice has an animated
movie been nominated for Best Picture.
The reason is that many voters still refuse to look at animation as a
viable storytelling device for anybody other than children. Eventually the
backlash grew to such a fever pitch that the Academy had to add a Best Animated
Film category, but that itself hasn’t come without controversy. Now with five more nomination slots, voters
have been able to grant animated movies entry to what had been an exclusive
club, but whether they’ll reward one with a win is yet to be seen. Either way,
if “Toy Story 3” makes the cut, members will be hard pressed to watch this film
and not put it in the same class as its colleagues.
“Shutter Island” – Paramount originally slated “Shutter
Island” for last October, but unexpectedly moved it to February to avoid a crowded
field of contenders and allow it room to breathe. The plan worked in that the
movie became the first real hit of 2010, but it remains to be seen if that will
translate to the big dance. With legendary director Martin Scorsese at the helm
and a spot on a number of year end “best” lists, the movie should be a shoo-in,
but it will have to contend with lead actor Leonardo DiCaprio’s “Titanic” sized
hit “Inception” which could steal its thunder. While it is possible both could
be nominated, it is still rare to see one actor topline two different “Best
Picture” contenders.
“The Kids Are Alright” – The reason for expanding the
nominations was for films like this to make the cut. Smaller art house style
movies that the public has embraced have in the past always been left off, but
now they have a real legit shot.
The Dark Horses:
“Rabbit Hole” – The Academy has a habit of nominating the
leads of many successful dramas but snubbing the actual picture itself. Despite
strong performances from its casts, voters may still elect to skip this trip
down the “rabbit hole.”
“The Town” – Ben Affleck jumped back on the radar in 2010
with his second directorial hit, “The Town.” Despite his well-known flops, many
people have forgotten (or some in cases joked) that his Oscar from “Good Will
Hunting” wasn’t for acting but for writing. As the director, star and co-writer
on “The Town,” Affleck has struck back against the naysayers and could emerge
with the last laugh.
“The Ghost Writer” – Very few names in Hollywood elicit
more of a response than that of Roman Polanski. The exiled director’s latest
film about a former British Prime Minister publishing his memoirs didn’t make
as many headlines as his legal troubles did in 2010. Despite the small box
office cume, it is hard to discount anything that this talented (and Oscar
winning) director releases. Although with a busy field of contenders in the
acting and directing categories, Polanski’s best shot at a nod could be with
the big prize. Once again in this case, a nomination may be just as good as a
win.
“Winter’s Bone” –Every year one movie comes out of
nowhere and grabs the attention of the movie going public. In 2010, that movie
was Lionsgate’s “Winter’s Bone,” a family drama about a teenage mother of two, who must hunt down her
deadbeat drug dealing father in the Ozark mountains or else lose their family
home. This gripping drama has succeeded because of a well written script and
the strong performance of its stars Jennifer Lawrence and John Hawks.
“Love & Other Drugs” –“Love & Other Drugs” has
had varying degrees of success in 2010. The star power of Jake Gyllenhaal and
Anne Hathaway has put the film on everyone’s radar, but the problem is nobody
is quite sure what to make of it.
“How To Train Your Dragon” – Yes, DreamWorks’s animated
hit about a Viking boy who befriends a Dragon was incredibly well received and
well-developed, but remember the Academy has problems with rewarding animated films with a shot at the big prize.
As nice as it would be to see two animated movies get a nod, it just doesn’t
seem to be in the cards. More than likely we’ll have to settle for “Toy Story
3” & “Dragon” going head to head for the “Best Animated” film award against
what will probably be the popular foreign film “The Illusionist.”
“Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows: Part 1” –As far
out there as it may seem, the Academy could decide to honor the long running
franchise as it comes to a close. The voters have been known in the past to go
the sentimental route, but even if that happened this time it would probably be
for next year’s finale.
